Giesco
DETERMINANTS OF ADAPTATION OF GRAPEVINE TO AN EVOLVING CLIMATE: HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND CULTIVARS BIODIVERSITY DETERMINANTES DE LA ADAPTACIÓN DE LA VID AL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO: CONDICIONES HIDROLÓGICAS Y BIODIVERSIDAD DE CULTIVARES
DE LORENZI, Francesca1*; CONA, Francesco2; ALFIERI, Silvia Maria1, 3; RICCARDI, Maria1; BONFANTE, Antonello1; DE MASCELLIS, Roberto1; MULA, Ileana4; MENENTI Massimo3, 5 1 Institute for Mediterranean Agricultural and Forest Systems, Italian National Research Council (ISAFoM-CNR), via Patacca 85, 80056 Ercolano (NA), Italy 2 Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples Federico II, via Università 100, 80055 Portici (NA), Italy 3 Delft University of Technology, Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands 4Ariespace S.r.l., Centro direzionale is. A3, 80143 Naples, Italy 5 State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China * Corresponding author: francesca.delorenzi@cnr.it
Abstract: Soil water availability is one of the main determinants of crop yield and of adaptation to a changing climate. The aim of this study was to analyse the soil water regime, as determined by climatic conditions, in combination with the intra-specific biodiversity of yield responses of grapevine to water availability. The adaptability of wine-producing cultivars to future climate was thus assessed. In a region of southern Italy the effects of climate evolution on soil water availability were determined. Through a mechanistic model, simulations of the soil water regime were performed over the study area accounting for spatial variability of soil hydrological properties. Two climate cases were considered: reference (1961-1990) and future (2021-2050). Hydrological indicators were calculated from model outputs. For several wine-producing cultivars, hydrological requirements were determined by means of yield response functions to water availability. Cultivar-specific hydrological requirements were then evaluated against hydrological indicators of soil water availability to assess adaptability, i.e. the probability that a given cultivar attains the target yield under a specific combination of climate and soil conditions. The potential spatial distribution of wine-producing cultivars was thus determined. The future climate was characterized by higher mean temperatures and by a decrease in precipitation. The variability of soil types affected cultivars adaptability. For instance, in the alluvial terraces and alluvial plain environments the soil water availability was higher and the hydrological indicators had quite similar values in both climate cases; therefore, the adaptability of the cultivars did not vary from the reference to the future climate in a large part of these environments.
Keywords: climate change, Vitis vinifera L., yield response functions, potential cultivation area
Abstract: Soil water availability is one of the main determinants of crop yield and of adaptation to a changing climate. The aim of this study was to analyse the soil water regime, as determined by climatic conditions, in combination with the intra-specific biodiversity of yield responses of grapevine to water availability. The adaptability of wine-producing cultivars to future climate was thus assessed. In a region of southern Italy the effects of climate evolution on soil water availability were determined. Through a mechanistic model, simulations of the soil water regime were performed over the study area accounting for spatial variability of soil hydrological properties. Two climate cases were considered: reference (1961-1990) and future (2021-2050). Hydrological indicators were calculated from model outputs. For several wine-producing cultivars, hydrological requirements were determined by means of yield response functions to water availability. Cultivar-specific hydrological requirements were then evaluated against hydrological indicators of soil water availability to assess adaptability, i.e. the probability that a given cultivar attains the target yield under a specific combination of climate and soil conditions. The potential spatial distribution of wine-producing cultivars was thus determined. The future climate was characterized by higher mean temperatures and by a decrease in precipitation. The variability of soil types affected cultivars adaptability. For instance, in the alluvial terraces and alluvial plain environments the soil water availability was higher and the hydrological indicators had quite similar values in both climate cases; therefore, the adaptability of the cultivars did not vary from the reference to the future climate in a large part of these environments.
Keywords: climate change, Vitis vinifera L., yield response functions, potential cultivation area